Shared Savings & Contract Modeling

Contract Scenario Planning Agent

hitl

Models new VBC contract opportunities with financial projections, sensitivity analysis, and risk assessments, producing executive decision packages—all recommendations require human approval.

CFO / FinanceACO / VBC LeadershipPractice Administrator
8x
Faster contract evaluation cycles
5–10
Scenarios modeled per decision
Board-ready
Decision packages in hours
Use Case 1

New Contract Evaluation

Trigger: Payer contract opportunity received

1.Parse contract term sheet
2.Build base-case financial projection
3.Run scenarios: optimistic, conservative, stress
4.Sensitivity analysis on top assumptions
5.Risk-adjusted expected value calculation
6.Assemble executive decision package
7.Route for executive approval

Contract decisions made with modeled math, stress-tested assumptions, and clear risk sizing.

Use Case 2

Annual Contract Portfolio Review

Trigger: Annual strategy cycle

1.Pull performance across all active contracts
2.Compare actual vs. projected by contract
3.Model renewal, renegotiation, or exit scenarios
4.Recommend portfolio rebalancing
5.Present to executive committee

Leadership manages contracts as a portfolio with continuous learning.

Integrations

Contract & Term Sheet Repository
Claims Data Warehouse
Actuarial Modeling Tools
CMS Benchmark Files
Executive Presentation Generation

Industries

healthcare

See It In Action

A sample conversation with this agent

Payer X offered us a new full-risk MA contract. Model it.
Pulling their term sheet. Running projections across five scenarios: base case, optimistic, conservative, aggressive-growth, and stress. Inputs: proposed attribution volume, benchmark methodology, risk corridors, quality bonuses, stop-loss terms. I'll produce a 15-page executive decision package including 3-year financial projection, sensitivity analysis on top 5 assumptions, risk assessment, and go/no-go recommendation. Full package held pending your review before any leadership distribution.
What happens if our attributed population is 20% smaller than projected?
Running stress test. At -20% attribution: fixed infrastructure costs don't scale down proportionally, so margin compresses from projected 4.8% to 1.2%. Quality-bonus thresholds still achievable but smaller absolute dollars. Risk corridor becomes the binding constraint—one bad cost quarter could flip us into a loss position. Recommendation: negotiate a minimum attribution floor or gradated infrastructure-cost provision into the contract.
Compare this contract to our current MSSP performance.
Side-by-side: Current MSSP at 60% shared savings = $1.44M projected this year on 4,218 attributed lives. Proposed MA full-risk at the terms offered = $3.1M–$4.8M range on same-size population, but with real downside risk up to -$2.2M in stress case. Higher upside, meaningful downside. Risk-adjusted expected value favors the new contract by ~$800K, but capital-at-risk is 3x higher. This is a board-level decision.